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This year, we have introduced two specific indicators of retention and progression.

One is first-year attrition rates, which is the proportion of first-year students in a given year who did not complete a qualification during that year and did not return to study the following year. The largest proportion of students who study without completing a qualification drop out of study in their first year. This makes first-year attrition rates a good predictive indicator of future retention and completion rates. It can also reflect the success or otherwise of student support services.

The other is direct higher-level progression, which is the proportion of students completing a qualification in a given year who went on to further study at a higher level in the following year. This provides an indicator of the success of qualifications in providing a pathway through the tertiary education system.

We have chosen to use these two indicators throughout the report as they are sensitive to year-to-year changes. However, they do not give the full picture over time. In particular, the patterns for progression are quite different when observed over four to five years following completion, that is, after taking into account gap periods. More complete information on retention, completion and progression is presented in the annual Profile and Trends and other reports produced by the Ministry of Education.

Improving retention following first year of study at degree level and above

Over the last three years there has been an overall reduction in first-year attrition rates. The reductions are particularly noticeable at degree and postgraduate levels. First-year attrition rates below degree level remain more static.

First-year attrition rates by qualification level 1997/98–2003/04

Progression to higher-level study increasing

Rates of direct higher progression have been fairly steady since 1997. Over the last two to three years, there has been some increase in progression from level 1 to 4 certificates and bachelors and honours degrees.

Direct higher-level progression rates by level of qualification completed 1997/98–2003/04

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• Table of Contents

• The State of Play

• Cross Strategy Indicators

• Raise foundation skills

• Skills for our knowledge society

• Strengthen research and knowledge creation

• Te rautaki mātauranga Māori

• Pacific people’s development and success

• Capability and quality

• Technical and Data Definitions